Theresa May faces a no-confidence vote from her party today. The challenge to her leadership comes from those favoring a harder Brexit over her own negotiated deal.
May intends to contest it with everything she’ got. Her own assessment of the stakes runs something like this: Tossing her out at this late hour, in the hope of renegotiating Brexit, would almost certainly require that the next PM withdraw or ask for an extension of the U.K.’s Article 50 notice. Secondly, there is no guarantee that a new PM from the Tory party will command a majority. Some Tories have indicated that they would resign the party if Boris Johnson came to lead it. A PM more inclined to Remain could drive away the crucial support of Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party. In other words, challenging her leadership risks the government falling and a general election that could end in a Labour government led by Jeremy Corbyn. Because of this uncertainty it seriously risks Brexit itself. I happen to think this analysis is sound.
Many readers of NR will want a Tory leader that believes in Brexit, that is willing to take the United Kingdom out of the European Union even without a deal, placing it under W.T.O. rules. Those challenging May can make that case, but can they convince their fellow party members that there is a majority in Parliament willing to send Britain out without a deal?
Early inquiries anticipate May winning the no-confidence motion. And she also offered a small consolation to her enemies, saying that she doesn’t think that today’s vote will or should determine who leads the Tories in the next general election after Brexit. In other words, she seems to be saying, “Let me finish Brexit. I may go after it is done.”
At the risk of sounding like Monty Python’s Knight, (“Only a flesh wound!”), it is easy to see how even a narrow victory can redound to May’s benefit. First, it may scare the heck out of Brussels and allow for a more generous clarification of the deal this week. Second, by the Tory party’s own rules, May cannot face a no-confidence vote again for another year. In other words, the part of the party that wanted to ditch her in a few months may find they are stuck with her, and have enhanced her authority over the conference.
As ever, Theresa May survives because she is weak, her party is weak, and none dare contemplate the alternatives.