London — Theresa May won the confidence vote, as expected, but by a slim majority of 83. Though she has signaled she’ll stand down before the next election, May is adamant that she should be the one to deliver Brexit. The trouble is that she’s no closer to determining how.
Jacob Rees-Mogg, chairman of the European Research Group, said that this was a “terrible result” for May and that she should go to the Queen at once, as is the constitutional convention, and resign. Mogg’s is a minority view in the Conservative party. And in Parliament, his views are considered by many to be extreme. However, that a third of the prime minister’s own party do not have confidence in her does indeed bode very badly for her and her deal.
Compounding the problem, of course, is that the EU has made it clear that they will not budge on the terms of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. And so, the best hope for May’s deal is that the EU will offer a “clarification” — a legally binding text that guarantees that the U.K. will be able to exit the EU trade arrangements to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (a.k.a. “the backstop”).
Until the issue of the backstop is resolved, the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) of Northern Ireland, on whom the Conservatives rely for their parliamentary majority, are likely to be uncooperative.
The DUP and Brexiteers are unlikely to accept such a compromise. There’s talk of a general election. Whispers of a second referendum in the House of Commons grow louder, but it remains unclear what questions should appear on the ballot. Some have predicted that Article 50 will be revoked — which amounts to canceling Brexit altogether. Ultimately, all options face the same obstacle: time.
As a buffer, it is possible that the EU would grant permission for Article 50 to be extended. But they would only do so if they consider it in their interests. In other words, only if they believe it will lead to a softer Brexit or no Brexit at all.
In line with National Review’s editorial position, therefore, a no-deal Brexit — even by default or “crash-out” — is still best. But is it even possible any more? May won the confidence vote. In real terms, she’s in a stalemate. Brexit is no further forward, and what happens next will depend largely on the whims of Parliament.