The Corner

Third-Party Spoilers

Rick:

What actually IS your opinion about the Perot effect in ‘92? I left it open

in my Monday piece, since there seem to be decent arguments pro (he lost

Bush-41 the election) and con (made no difference). Once you look closely

at the issue, the amount of number-crunching you have to do is amazing–down

to the precinct level in very close elections. It seems to me very hard to

decide these issues, and to involve a lot of untestable propositions (I mean

about how many people would have voted for X if A hadn’t been on the

ballot).

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