Rick:
What actually IS your opinion about the Perot effect in ‘92? I left it open
in my Monday piece, since there seem to be decent arguments pro (he lost
Bush-41 the election) and con (made no difference). Once you look closely
at the issue, the amount of number-crunching you have to do is amazing–down
to the precinct level in very close elections. It seems to me very hard to
decide these issues, and to involve a lot of untestable propositions (I mean
about how many people would have voted for X if A hadn’t been on the
ballot).