The presidential election will probably hinge upon about 8 percent, or maybe as little as 6 percent, of the electorate who are undecided or persuadable.
Elaborating a bit on something I said on the most recent edition of The Editors . . .
Since 2000, the lowest percentage of the popular vote that any major party candidate has received was won by John McCain in 2008, with 45.7 percent.
Ironically, the second-lowest percentage for any candidate was won by . . . Donald Trump in 2016, with 46 percent. But Trump had just enough votes in just enough states to accumulate 304 electoral votes and win the presidency.
While we have two nominees with high unfavorable numbers, it seems likely that both Trump and Biden start with about 46 percent of the likely electorate. In fact, the lowest percentage that any Democrat has received in a presidential election since 2000 was won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, with 48.1 percent. (It’s not that hard to talk yourself into believing that 81-year-old Biden, running with terrible poll numbers and minimal campaign events, could perform worse than Clinton.)
So, the election will come down to about 8 percent, or maybe as little as 6 percent, of the electorate who are undecided or persuadable. That’s a bit more than one out of every 20 voters. While I’m sure you can find some well-informed undecided voters who are following the race closely, a good chunk of these remaining undecided voters are the kinds of folks who tune out the world of politics until late autumn in presidential-election years.
The election will come down to these voters, and whether they feel more antipathy toward Biden or Trump when they cast their ballot. Right now, I think these voters are angrier at or more disappointed with Biden than they’re frightened of Trump. That could change. But note that Donald Trump has been at the center of our political world almost every day since summer 2015, and with about two years off, Joe Biden has been at the center of our political world almost every day since the summer of 2008. They are the ultimate known quantities. Everybody already knows what they think of these guys. It’s really hard to believe that some new X factor, even a conviction of Trump, would dramatically change people’s opinions about either of them.
And for those arguing that the popular-vote numbers don’t matter, because the Electoral College determines the president: If Trump wins the popular vote, his odds of reaching or surpassing 270 electoral votes are extremely high.