From CNN this morning: “An enthusiastic Republican base and persistent concerns about the state of the economy place the GOP in a strong position with about a week to go in the race for control of the US House of Representatives, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. . . . Republicans top Democrats on a generic ballot question asking voters which party’s candidate they would support in their own House district by 51 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, narrowly outside the poll’s margin of sampling error.”
Funny thing, though, if you go back to the 2014 cycle — the last time Republicans were expected to enjoy a good wave under a Democratic president — the final CNN poll before Election Day found Democrats leading on the generic ballot, 47 percent to 46 percent. In the final RealClearPolitics average, Republicans enjoyed a 2.4 percentage point lead in the generic ballot. In the final results, Republicans led the total number of House votes cast by 5.7 percentage points over the Democrats.
Right now, Republicans lead the generic ballot by 2.9 percentage points in the RCP average.
In other words, that cycle, Republicans overperformed the final CNN poll’s margin by 6.7 percentage points. If history repeats itself, Republicans will lead the total number of House votes cast by almost eleven percentage points over the Democrats. I doubt the margin will be quite so large, but for Republicans hoping for a substantial House majority, these new CNN numbers are enormously encouraging.