As I write this, at 10:20 p.m. Eastern Time, much remains uncertain about the outcome of the 2022 elections. As returns come in from midwestern and western states, the Republican Party may yet pick up Senate seats in Arizona and Nevada.
But what we have seen so far, with initial returns from the East Coast, suggests a starkly divided and rather disappointing picture of the night and how it may develop electorally. Almost everywhere — close House races from Rhode Island down to Virginia, the tight Senate race in Georgia, and the currently dim outlook on the Pennsylvania Senate race — the Republican wave seems to have fallen short. Some pickups that were almost mooted by prognosticators (such as Abigail Spanberger’s seventh congressional district in Virginia) were held by their Democratic incumbents.
Meanwhile, the story in Florida currently seems as though it has teleported in from another dimension. The question once was whether Governor Ron DeSantis would defeat his opponent Charlie Crist by more than 10 percent. Tonight the question is whether he can keep the margin above 15 percent. DeSantis and the Florida GOP have performed above expectations; everywhere else, disappointment reigns so far.