The Corner

Politics & Policy

The ‘Toss Up’ States That Don’t Really Look Like Toss-Ups Anymore

From the first Morning Jolt of the week, why some of these “toss up” states aren’t really “toss ups”…

The ‘Toss Up’ States That Don’t Really Look Like Toss-Ups Anymore

USA Today’s projection of the Electoral College map currently has Hillary Clinton winning 263 electoral votes, Donald Trump winning 180, and 95 in the “toss up” category.

Much to the frustration of everyone hoping to see Hillary Clinton defeated, this map is probably too skeptical about her chances in some key states. The map lists Wisconsin as “toss up” but Clinton has never trailed there, or even been tied with Trump. The map lists North Carolina as “toss up,” but Clinton has led the last 13 polls. Florida is also listed as a toss up; Clinton has led the last eight polls there. The last eight polls in Nevada show Clinton leading in seven and a tie in the eighth; that state is listed as a “toss up.”

Utah is in the Trump pile, even though the last three surveys in that state show Evan McMullin down by one point, ahead by 4 points, and down by one point.

In short, the map is just about as bad as it can get for a Republican nominee. Even in the worst moments of the McCain campaign in 2008, the GOP never feared losing Texas. A new CBS poll puts Trump up by 3 points in the Lone Star State. Only two polls have been conducted of Arizona this month; one puts Clinton ahead by 5 points, the other by 2 points.

Trump fans can insist that every poll by every pollster is rigged; that every poll is failing to sample all of those notoriously shy Trump voters, and that Alex Jones has the real scoop on what’s really going on:

Jones repeated his mantra that Trump’s internal polls show him winning in a landslide and that all those public polls you read about that show Clinton ahead were disinformation to make a Democratic theft of the election look plausible.

Maybe all of those women voters are partaking in early voting because they concur with Trump’s assessment that “nobody has more respect for women than I do.”

In three crucial battlegrounds — North Carolina, Florida and Georgia — women are casting early ballots in disproportionate numbers. And in North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump with detailed early voting data available, it’s clear that Democratic women have been particularly motivated to turn out or turn ballots in.

Nearly 6 million people have voted in the 2016 election already. 

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