The Corner

Tough Fight Ahead for Gingrich

Mitt Romney now gets to show that he can come back from a thumping. There was really only one question before the electorate today: Do you want Mitt Romney to be the de facto GOP nominee? The voters overwhelmingly said no.

Romney’s demographic base remains the same — upscale, highly educated whites. He carried voters with post-graduate degrees and those who earn $200,000 or more, as he has in every other race. But unlike in New Hampshire and Iowa, he decisively lost among somewhat-conservative voters to Newt Gingrich, 41–30. As I’ve written before, somewhat-conservative voters always go with the eventual nominee, and they like someone who is conservative enough and has the experience and gravitas to look presidential. That’s why Newt’s debate performances are key — he shines in those events by looking to be the man somewhat-conservative voters want.

Florida will be a tougher road for Newt. The state is more moderate, less distinctively southern, less evangelical. It also has a culture of early voting — hundreds of thousands of Floridians have already voted in the January 31 primary. But it is also the only state where Latinos cast a significant percentage of the vote in the GOP primary, about 12 percent in 2008. Then, Romney got clobbered 50–16 by John McCain. Newt has started to run ads on Spanish stations in Miami alleging Romney is anti-immigrant, and Newt’s notably more compassionate line towards illegal immigrants who have lived in the country for a long time might pay pay dividends here.

Henry OlsenMr. Olsen is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, an editor at UnHerd.com, and the author of The Working Class Republican: Ronald Reagan and the Return of Blue-Collar Conservatism.

Most Popular

Elections

An Election Too Important to Be Left to Voters

The Democrats believe that the 2020 election is too important to be left to the voters. It’s obvious that President Donald Trump withheld defense aid to Ukraine to pressure its president to commit to the investigations that he wanted, an improper use of his power that should rightly be the focus of ... Read More
Elections

An Election Too Important to Be Left to Voters

The Democrats believe that the 2020 election is too important to be left to the voters. It’s obvious that President Donald Trump withheld defense aid to Ukraine to pressure its president to commit to the investigations that he wanted, an improper use of his power that should rightly be the focus of ... Read More
Film & TV

A Film for All Christians

‘The growing good of the world is partly dependent on unhistoric acts,” wrote George Eliot in Middlemarch, “and that things are not so ill with you and me as they might have been, is half owing to the number who lived faithfully a hidden life, and rest in unvisited tombs.” The passage provides the title ... Read More
Film & TV

A Film for All Christians

‘The growing good of the world is partly dependent on unhistoric acts,” wrote George Eliot in Middlemarch, “and that things are not so ill with you and me as they might have been, is half owing to the number who lived faithfully a hidden life, and rest in unvisited tombs.” The passage provides the title ... Read More
Film & TV

A Feeble Fox News Attack at the Movies

Don’t hold your breath waiting for Oscar-winning talents to rip the lid off the scandal at NBC News, whose bosses still have suffered no repercussions for their part in the Harvey Weinstein matter and other sleazy deeds — but at least Hollywood has finally let us know how they feel about Fox News ... Read More
Film & TV

A Feeble Fox News Attack at the Movies

Don’t hold your breath waiting for Oscar-winning talents to rip the lid off the scandal at NBC News, whose bosses still have suffered no repercussions for their part in the Harvey Weinstein matter and other sleazy deeds — but at least Hollywood has finally let us know how they feel about Fox News ... Read More