The Corner

Elections

Trafalgar Poll Shows Slim Leads for Trump and John James in Michigan

The Trafalgar Group grabbed attention this weekend when it released a poll showing Donald Trump leading Joe Biden 46.6 percent to 45.2 percent in Michigan and GOP Senate candidate John James leading Democratic senator Gary Peters 48.1 percent to 46.6 percent

The firm, which has a history of working for Republican clients as well as private businesses, gained fame for being the only pollster showing Trump with narrow leads in Pennsylvania and Michigan on the eve of the 2016 election. In 2018, Trafalgar’s final poll of Michigan showed John James trailing Democratic senator Debbie Stabenow by nine points; James lost that race by six points.

In an interview on Monday, Trafalgar’s president Robert Cahaly told National Review he believes his surveys are picking up “hidden voters” that other pollsters are missing.

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