The Corner

Trends

Moe Lane points to some interesting trends in Rasmussen issue polling over the past few months, suggesting the “Democrats Ascendant” storyline is not all it seems to be. Just before last year’s election, the Democrats had a 13 point edge on economic issues, which is now down to 1 point. They even had a 3 point edge on handling national security, but today the GOP has a 7 point lead on those issues (and a 2 point lead on Iraq). Similarly, on taxes a 5 point Democratic lead has become a 6 point Republican lead. Here’s his full table:

  October 2008 May 2009  
Issue Dem GOP Diff Dem GOP Diff Cumulative Shift
Economy 51% 38% 13 44% 43% 1 (12)
Govt Ethics 40% 30% 10 40% 29% 11 1
National Sec. 47% 44% 3 41% 48% (7) (10)
Education 53% 34% 19 49% 36% 13 (6)
Healthcare 54% 34% 20 53% 35% 18 (2)
Taxes 47% 42% 5 41% 47% (6) (11)
Iraq 47% 42% 5 41% 43% (2) (7)
Social Security 49% 37% 12 48% 39% 9 (3)
Abortion 47% 38% 9 41% 41% (9)
Immigration 40% 38% 2 36% 37% (1) (3)

How the Democrats have managed to gain a point on government ethics in these past few months is a little hard to see, but there it is.

Just a few data points, not to be over-read, but interesting.

Yuval Levin is the director of social, cultural, and constitutional studies at the American Enterprise Institute and the editor of National Affairs.

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