Today, Donald Trump endorsed Doug Mastriano for governor in Tuesday’s Pennsylvania Republican primary. This endorsement reveals a core element of Trump’s political strategy right now: more focused on asserting dominance over the GOP than ensuring that Republicans win elections.
Deeply invested in branding, Trump has attempted — often with some success — to make himself the principal figure of the GOP brand. He has launched withering attacks on Republicans whom he views as insufficiently deferential, even if such attacks actively harm Republican general-election chances. His relentless criticism of Massachusetts governor Charlie Baker, for instance, helped prompt Baker not to run for reelection, despite being a likely favorite to win. Angry at the refusal of Brian Kemp to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in Georgia, Trump recruited David Perdue to run against him for governor.
Trump has used 2022 endorsements to try to position himself as a kingmaker in the GOP. To that end, he has often endorsed candidates with major polling leads. Even in closer races, he has often endorsed candidates with momentum. For instance, Axios has reported that Trump was willing to endorse J. D. Vance in the Ohio Senate primary only after Vance’s polling numbers had begun to improve.
All this brings us to Pennsylvania. Doug Mastriano is widely regarded as maybe the weakest GOP nominee for governor. The likely Democratic nominee, Josh Shapiro, has tried to elevate Mastriano’s profile, and even populist-friendly journalists like Salena Zito have argued that Mastriano would be a political disaster for the GOP.
Polling places Mastriano’s support in the primary at somewhere in the 20s. However, because so many other candidates are running for the Republican nomination, that’s enough for a substantial lead. Lou Barletta is currently in second place in most polls. Recently, Melissa Hart and Jake Corman dropped out the race to endorse Barletta. But other Republicans — especially Dave White and Bill McSwain –have remained in the race and kept the field fractured. That divided field favors Mastriano.
Even though Barletta endorsed Trump in March 2016 and has strong populist credentials, other political calculations might have factored into the Mastriano endorsement: While Mehmet Oz’s polling numbers have improved, the Trump-endorsed candidate for the Republican Senate nomination in the Keystone State remains locked in a very tight race. Endorsing Mastriano could be a kind of insurance policy in case Oz does lose on Tuesday.
Trump’s endorsement of Mastriano could also boomerang on the former president. Mastriano is running on a quasi-ticket with Kathy Barnette, who is surging in the polls for the GOP Senate nomination. Trump has said that Barnette would “never be able to win” in the general election, but endorsing Mastriano might also give her a boost.
While many structural factors favor Republicans in 2022, Donald Trump’s effort to promote his own status within the party remains a wildcard, and Trump’s own interests (and piques) might sometimes diverge from those of Republican voters.