“It wasn’t my fault that the Republicans didn’t live up to expectations in the MidTerms,” Trump posted yesterday. He added:
I was 233-20! It was the “abortion issue,” poorly handled by many Republicans, especially those that firmly insisted on No Exceptions, even in the case of Rape, Incest, or Life of the Mother, that lost large numbers of Voters. Also, the people that pushed so hard, for decades, against abortion, got their wish from the U.S. Supreme Court, & just plain disappeared, not to be seen again. Plus, Mitch stupid $’s!
This is a pile of nonsense atop a kernel of truth.
Some Republican candidates took the positions on abortion Trump is describing. Tudor Dixon, the Republican nominee for governor of Michigan, favored banning abortion without exceptions for rape and incest. Tim Michels, the gubernatorial nominee in Wisconsin, took the same position until reversing it in the fall. Doug Mastriano, running for governor in Pennsylvania, said he opposed exceptions. Herschel Walker, the Senate nominee in Georgia, said much the same. Arizona Senate nominee Blake Masters waffled a bit on abortion during the campaign, but during the primaries he sometimes implied opposition to any exceptions and never explicitly supported any. Such positions were surely a liability in competitive states. Dixon, Michels, Mastriano, Walker, and Masters all lost.
All of these candidates had Trump’s backing, however, which undercuts his ability to run away from the defeats of 2022. He chose candidates based on their loyalty to him, not their ability to win their races. His loyalty test tended to screen out candidates who were better suited to win competitive states (e.g., Doug Ducey in Arizona, who backs the standard exceptions to an abortion ban).
The overall pattern of results suggests that voters punished Republicans more for their close ties to Trump, and especially to his claim to have won the 2020 election, than for their opposition to abortion. Republican governors who signed bans or partial bans on abortion cruised to reelection in Florida, Georgia, Ohio, and Texas.
Some House races illustrated the point especially starkly. Jaime Herrera Beutler, who lost her primary in Washington State after voting for the second impeachment of Trump, is a pro-lifer. Joe Kent, who beat her in the primary with Trump’s support, then lost the seat to a Democrat. The same basic story played out in Peter Meijer’s Michigan district. Neither outcome amounted to an electoral rebuke of pro-lifers.
Republicans should be open to adjusting their approach to abortion, most importantly because it might help them be more effective in fighting abortion. But the election results suggest that detaching from Trump, and especially from his worst aspects, is the more urgent political priority.