One of the principal talking points of Donald Trump’s Very Online defenders is that he must be uncritically supported because the “regime” fears him so much. From this perspective, the indictments of Trump are in fact proof of why he yet again should be the Republican nominee for president: The “regime” sees him as so dangerous that it will even try to imprison him.
Now, it is true that many parts of the political establishment have demonstrated over and over again since 2016 their willingness to overturn political norms and even destabilize the American constitutional infrastructure in order to “resist” Trump. However, Trump’s own behavior in and out of office also shows that he himself does not take seriously the social-media memes that portray him as the last bulwark against the progressive bureaucratic elite. As president, he continually prioritized the chase for media ratings over the interests of the voters who put him into office. The incessant tweeting, the obsession with cable news, the unending West Wing drama, the relentless insults — all this was not 4-D chess. It might have gratified a hardcore political base (who were going to turn out anyway), but it also continually lowered the ceiling of his political support by driving away swing voters. A president serious about facing such significant political challenges would have acted very differently.
And so it is with the latest indictment. If the facts stipulated in the indictment are true, this document offers even more evidence of Trump’s indifference to the demands of high-stakes politics. If you have just left office in a swirl of controversy, it is folly to show (allegedly) classified materials to a writer while admitting that you have not declassified this material. If you know you’re under investigation by the FBI and a grand jury, it is a blunder to instruct (again allegedly) an aide to move boxes in an attempt to hide potentially classified documents from both the legal authorities and your own attorneys. In his 1977 interview with David Frost, Richard Nixon said of Watergate, “I gave them a sword, and they stuck it in and they twisted it with relish.” Trump has delivered his political foes one sword after another on gilt-edged (Trump-branded) platters.
Setting aside legal questions (which are beyond my ken), I see the underlying political question facing Republican voters as this: Given the high stakes of the 2024 election, will they want to entrust the presidential nomination to someone who has continually weakened himself and undercut his own political coalition? Far from being an existential threat to the trends and interest groups he supposedly opposes, Trump often acts as their enabler.