Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential candidacy is unique for many reasons, one of the most straightforward being that it is rare for former presidents who have already been defeated in their reelection bids to seek another term. So when Trump decided to jump into the race, there was a question of whether the Republican electorate would still treat him as the incumbent and effectively rubber stamp his nomination — or, whether it would be a real race.
When he first announced he was going to run again, polls suggested that Trump would be the frontrunner in the 2024 primary, but a vulnerable one, and it also looked as though Florida governor Ron DeSantis would pose a real challenge. But now, the race is starting to look more like one in which an incumbent president is facing a symbolic primary challenge than it is a competitive primary.
In January of this year, DeSantis was polling within 13 points of Trump nationally in the RealClearPolitics average. While Trump may have had a sizeable lead in most polls, it was narrow enough that you could see DeSantis overtaking him. It promised to be a dog fight for delegates. But now, with Trump having barely campaigned, Trump is closer to 40 points ahead — and the Republican nomination fight is starting to resemble the Democratic one. As crazy as it sounds, DeSantis is now polling roughly where Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the Democratic side (at 14.9 percent in the average compared to 12.8 percent for RFK Jr.). The recent Wall Street Journal poll was even more lopsided, and had the race at 59 percent for Trump, 13 percent for DeSantis, and 8 percent for Nikki Haley. That compares pretty closely with the recent Messenger/Harris X poll showing Biden at 66 percent, Kennedy at 13 percent, and Marianne Williamson at 7 percent. There are more candidates running on the Republican side dividing up support, but Trump is, statistically speaking, roughly in as commanding a position as Biden (but for the fact that Trump faces challengers who are more plausible nominees should any of them gain traction).
I’ve been a broken record in saying that early primary state voters don’t get serious until a few weeks before voting begins. And while I still believe that, it becomes much easier to see a 10- or 20-point gap closing than a gap of 40 points or more. And the difficulty for DeSantis and other challengers is that once Trump starts getting treated as the incumbent and voters see him as inevitable, they will be more inclined to close ranks around him rather than drag out a primary that could damage the man whom they view as the eventual nominee.