If the GOP nomination slips away from Trump, a major reason will be that he was lazy and was ultimately out-hustled by somebody younger and hungrier.
Last week, Brittany Bernstein had an eye-opening report on how little Donald Trump has actually been on the campaign trail. While this has been talked about among those following the race closely, it was incredible to see the numbers:
Trump has held fewer than 40 campaign events since entering the race way back in November, and just 17 of those events have been in the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, according to a National Review analysis….
By contrast, Trump’s closest competitor, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, has made 78 campaign stops in the early primary states since entering the race six months after Trump, his campaign told NR. Forty-eight of those stops were in Iowa, with another 23 stops in New Hampshire and seven in South Carolina. Since DeSantis entered the race on May 24, Trump has made just nine campaign stops in the early primary states.
Looking at the early states, Brittany found that Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley have done 105 and 88 campaign stops, respectively, since entering the race in February, Tim Scott has done 41 since May, and Mike Pence has done 25 since June.
Aside from an occasional rally, Trump has spent most of his time as a declared candidate posting on social media, traveling between Bedminster and Mar-a-Lago, and navigating court appearances. Even during his unconventional 2016 campaign, he held more rallies and participated in all but one of the primary debates.
It’s possible that none of this matters. Trump is crushing the field in polls. He is a known quantity who has the ability to generate publicity on a daily basis. He could always do a flurry of campaign events close to the time of actual voting.
But traditionally, voters, especially in early states, demand a lot of attention from candidates. They like candidates who spend time there and get to know the states. Local news media regularly report on how many times candidates have visited. Recent Iowa caucuses have gone to candidates who not only were able to appeal to Iowa’s socially conservative voting base, but to those who spent a lot of time there — Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Ted Cruz.
Additionally, Trump is not building the same sort of get-out-the-vote operation that his rivals, particularly DeSantis, are working on and is assuming his supporters will turn out organically. If DeSantis or somebody else narrows the gap, that could be the difference maker in close states.
To be clear, I still consider Trump the heavy favorite to retake the nomination. But if, six months from now, it turns out that Trump underperforms in the early states and the nomination slips away from him, I think we’ll look back at this as a major factor. It will become clear that he was lazy, took the nomination for granted, and was ultimately out-hustled by somebody younger and hungrier.