The CNN/ORC poll released yesterday morning was an outlier in that it showed Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by two points, 45% to 43%. The poll’s internal numbers show another positive development for the Trump campaign.
One of the things Trump has struggled with, and which has kept him down in the polls, is his inability to unite Republicans behind him. While 93% of self-identified Republicans voted for Mitt Romney, for example, that number has ping-ponged between about 75% and 85% for Trump. The CNN poll suggests that’s changing: It has 90% of Republicans saying they plan to vote for Trump in November, on par with the percentage of Democrats — 92% — who say they plan to vote for Clinton. That’s the sort of number he needs if he expects to be competitive in November.
The poll also shows Trump with a whopping 20-point lead among independents. That’s Last month’s Washington Post/ABC News poll had him up just four points among those voters (Romney won them by five points).
Those two factors help explain Trump’s improved outlook in yesterday’s poll. Subsequent polls will demonstrate whether it’s an outlier and, if not, whether Trump can sustain his performance.