Here is a not-crazy map of Trump holding the Romney states and picking up Iowa, Ohio, Florida, and the Maine congressional district that gets him to 260:
It’s the next 10 electoral votes that are a bigger problem. He can get them in Nevada and New Hampshire, but Nevada is looking shaky and he’s been consistently behind in New Hampshire:
That’s why Trump is hunting for other states to get there, including ones that no one has thought that much about–Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Michigan (16), and New Mexico (5). This feels a little like a bunch of Hail Mary’s, but Clinton is spending now in Wisconsin and Colorado, suggesting she might be worried.
https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/793468839392579584
An additional problem for Trump is that even getting to that 260 allows for no margin of error–losing in Florida would obviously be devastating, and even losing in North Carolina would make the path nearly impossible for him.