The Corner

Deconsolidation

A month ago the CBS/NYT poll had Clinton ahead of Trump, 47 to 41 percent. This week the pollster has her ahead 43 to 37 percent. The margin’s the same, but both candidates have sunk four points. Trump’s decline is concentrated among Republicans (he has fallen 12 points), white college grads (12 points), and white women (10 points).

Clinton’s decline is concentrated among African-American voters (12 points), voters aged 30-44 (11 points). She’s down 7 among voters aged 18-29, liberals, and Democrats. In most of these group’s, once candidate’s loss is not the other’s gain. Trump isn’t picking up any new support among African-Americans, and Clinton isn’t gaining any Republicans.

Trump has been sliding in the poll averages for weeks. Over at Bloomberg, I take a look at the implications of a Clinton blow-out on the House elections–and conclude that House Republicans are in more danger than they think.

Ramesh Ponnuru is a senior editor for National Review, a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and a senior fellow at the National Review Institute.

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