The Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman reports that Democrats are experiencing a turnout gap in a key toss-up race in Virginia:
Noon turnout reports in VA Beach – a majority of Rep. Elaine Luria's (D) Toss Up #VA02 – show most heavily GOP precincts up to 55-60% of '21 votes cast, vs. 40-45% in most non-white precincts.
Total ballots cast skewing much more R than '20 in many FL counties, esp. Miami-Dade.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 8, 2022
In the 2021 gubernatorial election, Republican Glenn Youngkin carried Luria’s district over Democrat Terry McAuliffe by eight points.
Here's my rough thinking early on Election Night:
– If #VA02 Luria (D) holds on, better night for Dems than expected
– If #IN01 Mrvan (D) or #VA07 Spanberger (D) lose, Rs likely winning 20+ seats
– If #NH02 Kuster (D) or #VA10 Wexton (D) lose, Rs likely winning 30+ seats https://t.co/XNIp07Sj0y— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 4, 2022