Ballot propositions that will either expand access to abortion or place legal abortion into state constitutions will be on the ballot in as many as twelve states this November. It is hardly a secret that, in the years following the Dobbs decision, pro-lifers have not fared well in statewide democracy campaigns. However, this year, Florida pro-lifers have a good chance to prevail at the ballot box. That is because ballot propositions to amend Florida’s state constitution need more than 60 percent of the vote to take effect.
Two separate surveys show that the proposed amendment to place legal abortion in Florida’s state constitution is polling well below this 60 percent threshold. An Emerson College poll released earlier this month found that the abortion amendment has the support of only 42 percent of Sunshine State voters. Additionally, a recent USA Today/Ipsos poll found the abortion amendment was ten percentage points short of passage.
This is good news for pro-lifers. A body of polling data from both Ohio and Michigan show that amendments to place legal abortion in the state constitution fail to appreciably gain support during the course of the campaign. Obviously, Sunshine State pro-lifers still have plenty of work to do. Furthermore, both the presidential election and the enforcement of the Heartbeat Act may affect the dynamics of this direct-democracy campaign. However, these two polls show that a pro-life victory in Florida this November is within reach.