U.S. stocks have been rallying for about the last month after having fallen in value following Trump’s various tariff announcements. The S&P 500 is now higher than it was on April 2, and the Dow is at roughly the same level it was then.
As I wrote in my post from March on my expectations for the effects of tariffs, the intraday changes don’t really matter that much. The worrying thing as far as the stock market is concerned is that for the first extended period of time in many years, European stocks are outperforming U.S. stocks. That signals weakening investor confidence in the future profitability of U.S. companies relative to European ones, the opposite of what Trump should want. U.S. stocks have significantly outperformed European stocks since 2009, so it’s a noteworthy change that things have flipped over the past several months.
In the March post, I compared what a $1,000 investment made on November 6, the day after the presidential election, in the stock markets of the U.K., France, Italy, Spain, and Germany would be worth with what the same investment in the S&P 500 and the Dow. It’s time to refresh those numbers.
If you had invested $1,000 in the following major stock market indices on November 6, the day after the presidential election, here’s approximately what your investment would be worth today:
- FTSE 100 (U.K.): $1,063
- CAC 40 (France): $1,073
- FTSE MIB (Italy): $1,207
- IBEX 35 (Spain): $1,227
- DAX (Germany): $1,251
- S&P 500 (U.S.): $1,004
- DJIA (U.S.): $976
Trump likes to say he’s great for the stock market, but the stock market continues to disagree with him for now, even after a monthlong rally. Getting back to where you started is not growth.