John, the movie contrast you draw between UKIP and the BNP (an Ealing comedy versus Triumph of the Will) is spot-on. There is also Guido’s splendid take on another political tribe, the “Chihuahuas,” to consider:
ChIHUAHuas are Conservatives In their Heads, Ukip At Heart. Some are hardcore irreconcilable Eurosceptics, some are disappointed with the melting away of the cast iron guarantee [the Tory promise of a referendum on the Lisbon treaty] and many more are just mainstream conservatives who vote Tory because in their heads they know it is the only realistic choice they have, even though they are UKIP sympathisers at heart. Chihuahuas are off that loyalty leash in Buckingham, which because Bercow is the speaker hasn’t even got a nominally Conservative Party candidate. Bercow is universally loathed by grassroots conservatives as well as more establishment Tories up to and including David Cameron.
Whatever they say publicly there will be cheering in CCHQ [the Conservative party HQ] if Bercow loses. Many will see it as a conservative gain, Farage’s politics are their politics after a few gin and tonics; cut taxes, stuff the EU, cut spending and show a bit of pride in being British.