That’s the latest astonishing assessment from the Institute for the Study of War. I initially thought at the outset of the invasion that Russian forces would be in the center of Kyiv in a couple of days. Then I thought that Russian forces would take it, but only after weeks of bitter fighting. Then, finally, I thought the Ukrainians would hold the city, but barely, in the face of a terrible siege. It was only in the last week or two that it became obvious that the Russians weren’t going to take Kyiv, and now they look to have been repulsed. The New York Times has a good rundown of what went wrong for the Russians. The 2022 defense of Kyiv is going to be a story that echoes down through Ukrainian history forever. But the war is not done. The Russians have made gains in the south and the east, where they will presumably concentrate their efforts now. There will be new horrors ahead and, if diplomacy gets more serious, it’s going to sorely test President Zelensky, whose legendary status won’t make the painful concessions that might be necessary any easier. Meantime, we should get all the weapons to the Ukrainians we reasonably can — they’ve shown they have the skill and resolve to use them to great effect.