In response to Face-to-Face With Your Fears
There has been a lot of optimism about Trump’s chances this fall, which is understandable. He climbed in the polls, first those of Republican primary voters and then those of the electorate as a whole; he pulled slightly ahead of Clinton in some polls and briefly in the RealClearPolitics average. The pessimistic take on his chances, though, is implicit in Rich Lowry’s description of the state of play: “This dynamic, with Trump consolidating the GOP and Hillary still in an intra-party battle, has meant that Trump has pulled into a tie with Hillary in the national polls. . .” Even with a likely transitory advantage working for him, he is only tied. If you assume that Sanders supporters are significantly underestimating the probability that they will vote for Clinton this fall, the numbers look more ominous for Trump. You can see why Trump is putting so much stock in the idea that he has a special appeal to Sanders voters.