I’ve now heard a bunch of interviewers on radio and TV talk about the fact that B.P. said this type of disaster was “unlikely” in its paperwork. The Matt Lauer types keep mentioning it as if it’s some colossal gotchya. I get the point, but surely people understand probability well enough to understand that just because something happens it doesn’t mean it was likely to happen, right? I mean it is really unlikely I will win tomorrow’s MegaMillions jackpot. But if it does happen, it won’t mean that it was actually likely to happen.
And, if it does happen, look for me to take out a long paid commercial on the Today Show explaining this with hand puppets to Matt Lauer.