According to this poll by the Newark Star Ledger:
Two weeks before Election Day, the odds that President Bush will pull an upset and grab New Jersey’s 15 electoral votes are growing slimmer, a Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers poll shows.
Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry leads Bush by 10 points, 48 percent to 38 percent, among registered voters and by 13 percentage points, 51-38, among likely voters, according to the survey of 805 registered voters conducted by telephone Oct. 14 to 17.
Kerry’s lead had been as small as 4 percentage points in early September, just after the Republican National Convention in Manhattan. That gap was close to the poll’s 3.8 percent margin of error, and prompted the GOP to declare the state “in play,” even though it has gone Democratic in the last three presidential elections.
Subsequent polls have increasingly favored Kerry, said Patrick Murray, the poll’s acting director, and the new results give the Democrat his widest margin in New Jersey since August.