The Corner

VA-SEN Through Sabato’s Crystal Ball

I asked election augur Larry Sabato, director of the UVA Center for Politics, whether Sen. Jim Webb’s announcement that he won’t stand for reelection in 2012 changes the game in Virginia.

“I really haven’t changed on this one at all,” Sabato wrote in response. “Virginia Senate is likely to be a presidential coattail race. If Obama can come back and win in Virginia a second time, he’ll carry in any strong, well-funded Democrat for the Senate seat.”

Emphasis on the “strong, well-funded Democrat” bit.

“The Democrats have to find one, and that may be their problem. Tim Kaine will have the right of first refusal. If he says no, I’m not sure whom they will choose, maybe one of the current or just defeated congressmen,” Sabato says.

And what if Obama and the Democrats can’t bounce back from electoral defeats in Virginia in 2009 and 2010? Then, says Sabato, “both the GOP nominee for president and the Republican nominee for Senate should win.”

“My guess is, regardless, there won’t be much split-ticket voting in 2012. That’s true in Virginia, and it may also hold true for some competitive Senate races in other states.”

On the Republican side, Sabato says, “Allen is the presumptive nominee, but he has a Tea Party opponent, and we’ve learned not to ignore them.”  

Most Popular

Elections

A Hard Look at Those Post-Election Legal Efforts

On the menu today: Michigan certifies its vote totals; the General Services Administration starts the transition; and it’s time for a hard, unflinching look at the president’s post-election legal efforts. What Did the President Get from His Legal Team? Michigan and Georgia have certified their election ... Read More
Elections

A Hard Look at Those Post-Election Legal Efforts

On the menu today: Michigan certifies its vote totals; the General Services Administration starts the transition; and it’s time for a hard, unflinching look at the president’s post-election legal efforts. What Did the President Get from His Legal Team? Michigan and Georgia have certified their election ... Read More
History

From Hate to Heroism

Welcome to “The Tuesday,” a weekly newsletter about language, culture, politics, and, lately, relentless book-hawking. To subscribe to “The Tuesday” and receive it in your inbox, please follow this link. From Hatred to Heroism Daniel Cordier, when he was young and getting started in life, did not seem ... Read More
History

From Hate to Heroism

Welcome to “The Tuesday,” a weekly newsletter about language, culture, politics, and, lately, relentless book-hawking. To subscribe to “The Tuesday” and receive it in your inbox, please follow this link. From Hatred to Heroism Daniel Cordier, when he was young and getting started in life, did not seem ... Read More
Elections

It’s Only ‘Free and Fair’ When We Win

Indeed, this is astonishing: https://twitter.com/felixsalmon/status/1331295033325219840 In 2018, after two years of media spinning tales about shady Russian infiltrators in our government, 67 percent of Democrats believed that Putin’s gremlins had bored into our voting machines and altered the outcome ... Read More
Elections

It’s Only ‘Free and Fair’ When We Win

Indeed, this is astonishing: https://twitter.com/felixsalmon/status/1331295033325219840 In 2018, after two years of media spinning tales about shady Russian infiltrators in our government, 67 percent of Democrats believed that Putin’s gremlins had bored into our voting machines and altered the outcome ... Read More

The Coup That Wasn’t

Donald Trump is not done challenging the results of the 2020 election in court, and he is by no means done complaining. But there will be no “coup.” Any prospect of Trump remaining in office without a legal process that declares him the recipient of more legal votes in the decisive states has now evaporated. ... Read More

The Coup That Wasn’t

Donald Trump is not done challenging the results of the 2020 election in court, and he is by no means done complaining. But there will be no “coup.” Any prospect of Trump remaining in office without a legal process that declares him the recipient of more legal votes in the decisive states has now evaporated. ... Read More