I still think Dick Gephardt is a leading contender. The upsides are Missouri and the labor movement. Union households are in play this election, and if the economy keeps improving, more union members may tend to stray towards Bush. Gephardt’s bullet-proof union credentials could help keep them in line.
Having said that, Gephardt brings all the electricity and excitement of a Sunday School superintendent. Two candidates with a near-zero Q rating is not a good thing. However, if you were John Kerry, would you really want a flashy, high-profile running mate stealing what little of the limelight you can attract?