There is something bizarre and unnerving to read reports of Kremlin insiders recognizing that the invasion of Ukraine is a catastrophic mistake, like this one from Bloomberg News...
Almost eight weeks after Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine, with military losses mounting and Russia facing unprecedented international isolation, a small but growing number of senior Kremlin insiders are quietly questioning his decision to go to war.
The ranks of the critics at the pinnacle of power remain limited, spread across high-level posts in government and state-run business. They believe the invasion was a catastrophic mistake that will set the country back for years, according to ten people with direct knowledge of the situation. All spoke on condition of anonymity, too fearful of retribution to comment publicly.
Wealthy Russian businessman Oleg Tinkov on Tuesday condemned what he called Moscow’s “crazy war” in Ukraine, saying 90 percent of his countrymen did not support it and calling on the West to offer Vladimir Putin a dignified way to withdraw.
…and then to read reports of Russia intensifying its campaign in eastern Ukraine, with the expectation that assaults and barrages will get worse as we get closer to Russia’s May 9 Victory Day holiday.
It is the greatest case of “The Emperor’s New Clothes” of all time. Apparently everyone in Russia with a clear or reliable view of the war can see that it is a disaster, that it is costing the Russian military thousands of lives, that it is wrecking the Russian economy and will impoverish millions, that it is unifying and strengthening NATO and may well expand the alliance, that it is pouring gasoline on the fire of Ukrainian nationalism, that it is turning Volodymyr Zelensky into a legend, and that it is making Russians look like ill-informed, incompetent brutes on the world stage. Anyone with eyes and access to reliable information can see that a sweeping victory is not just around the corner, and that Russia’s best-case scenario is a long, difficult, bloody slog that consolidates some gains in eastern Ukraine. If the aspirations of conquering Kyiv or splitting Ukraine down the middle were ever realistic, they are no longer plausible scenarios.
Apparently many Russians can see this, but they cannot stop the war. The Russian military can see it. The Russian intelligence agencies can see it. The oligarchs can probably see it. Even the people working at the state-run media have to be wondering why this “special military operation” against a bunch of allegedly drug-addicted Nazis is in its second month, Kyiv hasn’t been captured, and the Moskva is sunk.
A former superpower on the world stage, the ninth most populated country in the world, the eleventh biggest economy in the world (and falling fast!), and the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world are, for all intents and purposes, entirely obedient to the whims of one man.
The world’s relative powerlessness and hesitation when confronting Putin’s mad dreams of conquest is worth considering when we contemplate, say, the North Korean nuclear program, or Iran’s nuclear ambitions, or Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power in China.