Over at RealClearPolitics, Sean Trende has a must-read piece that cuts through the noise about the midterm elections:
In short, in Washington state, all candidates run on the same primary ballot. Because of this, and because of the fact that the primary occurs relatively late in the election season, there tends to be a strong correlation between a party’s combined vote share on the primary ballot and its eventual vote share in November, typically with a slight swing toward Democrats. It’s been helpful in providing a sense of where things really stand in Washington state’s races, and for understanding what the national environment is like.
The results in Washington State, Trende concludes, “suggest that the environment for Republicans is better than it was in 2020 and is certainly consistent with them winning control of the House and being positioned to take the Senate. At the same time, it seems as though, at least for now, the scenario many were pondering last summer, where Republicans won the popular vote for the House by 2010-like margins (if not more) is increasingly unlikely.”
Read the whole thing here.