A few notes on the recent polls…
When people are asked with four options – Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Liberarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein, here’s Clinton’s percentages in the last seven surveys: 40, 40, 42, 39, 45, 37, 39. That’s strikingly consistent. Note the 45 comes from Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm. She leads in these polls, but maybe winning a plurality is a Clinton family tradition. Bill Clinton won 43 percent in 1992 and 49.2 percent in 1996.
Monmouth University finds Trump narrowly ahead in Iowa, 44 percent to 42 percent. Quinnipiac University finds Trump ahead by five in Florida, ahead by one in Ohio, and up by 6 in Pennsylvania. (For what it’s worth, some are arguing that the samples include too many Republicans to accurately represent the Election Day turnout.) JMC finds Trump ahead by 5 in Florida.
If there is a genuine Trump bump, we might be reaching a point where events are overwhelming the electorate’s disapproval and distrust of Trump. The resolution of the investigation of Hillary Clinton’s e-mail server proved she was dishonest and shady, and Washington’s institutions so incapable of holding her accountable; the Obama era now feels so chaotic — with crime rising, multiple copycat ambushes of police, and aspiring jihadists shooting up clubs and streets. Key sections of the electorate may now be thinking, “to heck with it, let’s roll the dice on Trump.”