From the first Morning Jolt of the week, the first week of 2016 that doesn’t feature a debate or any primaries or caucuses.
We’re In a Mess. So Speak Your Mind and Let the Cards Fall Where They May.
A few points from my remarks to the Hilton Head Republicans this past Wednesday . . .
My colleague, Jonah Goldberg, recently wrote that “this ends in tears no matter what. Get over it and pick a side.”
As of last night, there have been 21 million votes cast in the GOP primary. There were 19 million cast in 2012; you have to give Donald Trump credit for at least some portion of that surge in turnout. So far, 7.8 million votes have been cast for Donald Trump – that’s about 37 percent. Next highest is Cruz with 5.7 million, or 27 percent; Rubio with 3.4 million, about sixteen and a half percent, 2.8 million for Kasich, about 13 percent.
Arizona was supposed to give us a sense of how things would look in a one-on-one fight between Trump and Ted Cruz. John Kasich didn’t really spend much time or money in Arizona. Trump crushed him, 47 percent to 24 percent, and Kasich still got 10 percent.
Last night Rubio picked up 70,000 votes in Arizona, which was more than Kasich did, meaning Kasich came in fourth in a three-man race. This is why early voting in primaries is a terrible, terrible idea.
And now the race is in a form of stasis for a while. There are only two contests in the coming month. Wisconsin on April 6 and New York on April 19.
As you probably know, National Review formally endorsed Ted Cruz. The fact that we have to urge people to unite behind Cruz indicates how little natural inclination there is among non-Trump Republicans to unite behind Cruz.
You may recall that for most of last summer, when the likes of Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal were critical of Trump, a lot of people remember Cruz NOT criticizing Trump and attending Trump’s rally against the Iran deal. For some inexplicable reason, Cruz’s rivals, with the exception of Carly Fiorina, cannot stand him.* Ben Carson still blames him for the Iowa rumor. According to Politico, Cruz reached out to Rubio about a unity ticket and Rubio turned it down. (For what’s worth, Cruz said it wasn’t true.)
Trump will probably not win 1,237 delegates. There are 944 remaining; he needs 500. The most likely scenario is that he wins close to – let’s say, 94 or 95 percent of what he needs. And the delegates will have a difficult time not giving him the nomination if he’s that close to the threshold and no one else is close to Trump.
Here is all of the head-to-head polling in March: The Quinnipiac poll had Hillary beating Trump, 46 percent to 40 percent. The CBS/New York Times poll had Hillary over Trump 50 percent to 40 percent. CNN poll, 53 percent to 41 percent. ABC News/Washington Post poll, 50 percent to 41 percent. NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 51 percent to 38 percent.
These are very consistent numbers, usually a ten-point or so spread. Recall that back in 2008, seen as a disaster for Republicans, Obama beat McCain by seven points.
People say, “Oh, you can’t look at head-to-head polling right now.” Except Donald Trump has close to 100 percent name recognition, and very few Americans don’t have an opinion of him. In the Quinnipiac poll, 61 percent of registered voters said they feel unfavorable towards him. In the CBS poll, 57 percent.
Quinnipiac found 54 percent of registered voters said they “would definitely not” vote for Trump in the general election.
Depending on which poll you look at, 35 to 37 percent of Republicans are thinking of voting third-party or looking for another option in November.
You know how we laugh that only 37 percent of Americans think Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy? Only 27 percent say that about Donald Trump. The Republican party is about nominate the one guy who nullifies all of Hillary Clinton’s weaknesses.
This comes as we’re trying to keep the Senate with a challenging map, and Democrats need 30 seats to win back the House.
Maybe there is some hope that if a Hillary Clinton presidential victory is seen as a landslide, Republicans in Congress will be able to persuade voters, you need us there to prevent Hillary and the Democrats from duplicating the worst of the early Obama years.
We have a president who acknowledged the Brussels bombing for 50 seconds yesterday at the beginning of a speech in Cuba, and who offered his most detailed comments about the attack from a baseball stadium in Cuba in an interview with ESPN.
We have good reason to be mad about that. We have good reason to be mad about the broken promises on a secure border from 1986 and after 9/11 and in 2006. The problem is that right now, the most likely path ahead is President Hillary Clinton – an outcome that doesn’t alleviate our anger one bit.
* I am reminded that Jeb Bush endorsed Cruz . . . five days ago, after the field was reduced to three options and after the Florida primary.