The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party simulated a Taiwan invasion scenario during a two-and-a-half-hour war game behind closed doors last night — an exercise that heightened the stakes for Congress as the island democracy faces down an increasingly belligerent China.
Lawmakers walked away from this simulation determined to warn the U.S. business community of the impending crisis. The committee doesn’t believe that American companies are taking it seriously enough.
“We are well within the window of maximum danger for the Chinese Communist Party invasion of Taiwan, and yesterday’s war game stressed the need to take action to deter CCP aggression and arm Taiwan to the teeth before any crisis occurs,” Representative Mike Gallagher (R., Wisc.), the committee’s chairman, told National Review this morning.
The simulation was overseen by the Center for New American Security think tank, whose experts played the role of the Chinese military. The members of Congress took the role of the president’s national-security team.
HAPPENING NOW: The fate of the Indo-Pacific hangs in the balance as members of the Select Committee engage in a fictional war game to decide the American response to the Chinese Communist Party’s 2027 invasion of Taiwan. pic.twitter.com/kkbE3AHwyB
— The Select Committee on the CCP (@committeeonccp) April 20, 2023
While the committee did not complete the war game (because there wasn’t enough time), it spotlighted the stakes for the lawmakers who participated.
“Last night’s exercise reaffirmed what we already know: Xi is running hypothetical invasion scenarios in his head every single day,” said Representative Ashley Hinson (R., Iowa), a member of the committee.
During the game, China’s access to SWIFT was cut off, following a simulated attack on Taiwan by invading People’s Liberation Army forces. Ships stopped going through the region, and supply chains were severely disrupted.
“There will be huge economic consequences for the world if China attacks Taiwan and companies need to prepare for this,” a source close to the committee said. “They are not planning for this scenario and they need to be, or else they risk a dereliction of their fiduciary duties.”
The exercise also conveyed the importance of basing agreements with U.S. allies in the region, such as a recent deal with the Philippines granting U.S. forces more access to military facilities in the country. Lawmakers also learned that the U.S. would run out of long-range missiles early into any contingency and that the Taiwanese need more weapons before a potential invasion occurs.
When members of the committee met Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen in California this month, one topic of discussion was breaking the $19 billion backlog in weapons sales to the country. Among the committee’s main goals this spring, the source said, is to focus heavily on the issue to ensure that the next annual defense-policy bill includes provisions to shore up Taiwan’s defenses and ramp up U.S. defense production.
“The United States needs to deliver on our promises and clear the $19 billion weapons backlog to Taiwan, conduct enhanced joint military training, and reinforce our military posture through the region,” Gallagher told NR. He added, “Deterring war is the only path to peace and stability, and it is incumbent upon elected officials to take decisive action to do so before it’s too late.”