You said: “Colorado is the new Florida. The winner of that state is almost certainly going to win the election.”
Probably true- but keep your eye on NM. McCain is ahead in 2 of the last 3 NM polls (including the only post-Palin NM poll), and altho he’s behind there by 2.3 in the RCP average (same spread as CO), that average includes an outlier poll showing Obama +13. Even if Obama turns both IA and CO blue, if McCain wins NM he still wins the election 270-268. Will be interesting to see more post-Palin polls from there.
Fair enough, but I suspect that if McCain wins New Mexico he will have won Colorado too.