The maxim that ‘all politics is local’ still retains strength. And sometimes, you just have to be ‘the other guy.’
Over the years here at National Review, I have been constantly amused (and admittedly occasionally frustrated) at how in sync Jim Geraghty and I turn out to be when it comes to column ideas. You have to get up absurdly early in the morning to beat him to the punch on a topic — and for whatever reason, we both instinctively gravitate toward the same topics.
So it was no surprise to see Jim’s subject in today’s Morning Jolt: After weeks and weeks of rhetorical despair and warnings of electoral doom, it’s time to remember Eric Idle’s exhortation to always look on the bright side of life. Instead of worrying about what could go wrong — an enormous number of things, needless to say — how about contemplating what might plausibly go right? Perhaps CNN analyst Harry Enten is onto something when he warns about the potential for a nationwide polling miss, one that overstates Democratic support — which has certainly happened before.
But let’s talk about specifics. In New England, Susan Collins continues to meep-meep her way insouciantly through a high-stakes reelection that has turned into a Looney Tunes, Coyote vs. Road Runner short: Her first opponent blew himself up spectacularly, then her second opponent turned to Mainers and said, “I can top that, hold my beer.” Will the Democrats finally manage to ensnare their quarry? Anything can happen in an environment this poor, but I’m done betting against Collins.
Elsewhere in the far northeast, Republicans look to hold onto the governors’ mansions in New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte) and Vermont (Phil Scott). While Ayotte is the semi-newcomer (she served as senator from 2010 to 2016, of course), it’s the veteran Governor Scott who is currently the more endangered of the two. Familiarity can often breed contempt in the electorate — just look at Greg Abbott’s surprisingly fraught campaign for a fourth term in Texas — and Scott has been at the helm in Vermont for nearly a decade. Meanwhile, Ayotte’s reelection looks secure, and her presence on the ballot can only help John E. Sununu in his (extremely tough) race for the state’s open Senate seat.
Meanwhile, were you aware that out in Oregon — a land only ever spoken of in these pages with reference to the terminal blight of Portland — Republican State Senator Christine Drazan currently leads hapless incumbent Tina Kotek in the governor’s race? Neither was I, until Jim pointed it out! In Minnesota’s Senate race, this overwhelmingly blue state (and center of the political universe earlier this year) is seriously looking at Republican Michele Tafoya in her race against Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan for the seat that is being vacated by Amy Klobuchar, who herself is facing surprising headwinds in the race to replace the disgraced Tim Walz. (She should be polling much higher than 48.6 percent, given the state’s natural Democratic lean, backlash to Trump, and her veteran status.)
What do all of these races have in common? With the exception of New Hampshire (where the GOP controls both chambers — for now), they are all in states that are otherwise run top to bottom by Democrats. In Minnesota, where Walz was chased from office a mere two years after sharing a national ticket with Kamala Harris, by the stink of the “Learing Center” scandal and reckless financial mismanagement, his Lieutenant Governor Flanagan is unpopular as the sole remaining face of the scandal. In Oregon, everyone knows that Donald Trump, as egregious as he is, has nothing to do with crime, drug use, and vagrancy in Portland. Addressing that requires change at the top.
It would be foolish to predict GOP wins in most of these races — these are blue states during an (anticipated) blue wave. But the fact that they are competitive at all for the GOP suggests that the maxim that “all politics is local” still retains strength. And sometimes you just have to be “the other guy.”