If Glenn Youngkin does not win the Virginia gubernatorial election tonight, Republicans will be disappointed, if for no other reason than so many elements of a perfect storm seemed to come together in the last two months.
Terry McAuliffe bigfooted a bunch of rivals in the primary and, just as the electorate really started tuning in, offered one of the all-time self-destructive lines, “I don’t believe parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” After Biden won the presidency in 2020, the Democratic grassroots are probably a bit complacent and the Republican grassroots are probably angrier and more fired up than usual. Republicans nominated an African-American woman to be lieutenant governor and a Latino to be state attorney general. The incumbent Democratic state attorney general running for reelection is one of the two Democratic statewide officials who admitted to wearing blackface.
The third-party gubernatorial candidate, Princess Blanding, is running against systemic racism and pledges “progressive, courageous leadership,” meaning she’s more likely to take away votes from McAuliffe, not Youngkin.
Democrats control Capitol Hill but can’t unite behind the spending bills, and President Biden’s approval rating is low and sinking lower. The economy is turning into a mess with high gas prices, high food prices, inflation and worsening supply chain problems. Youngkin seemed to successfully walk the tightrope of being Trumpy enough for the southern part of the state but not so Trumpy that he repels the northern part of the state.
Add it all up, and it’s easy to see why people now see Youngkin as a slight favorite.
But if McAuliffe wins, say, 50 percent to 49 percent, that result would still represent an significant erosion of the Democratic position in Virginia, one year after Biden won, 54 percent to 44 percent. Keep in mind, no Republican has run all that close statewide since Ed Gillespie almost beat Mark Warner in the 2014 Senate race. Ralph Northam clobbered Gillespie in the 2017 governor’s race, 54 percent to 45 percent; Tim Kaine demolished Corey Stewart in the 2018 Senate race, 57 percent to 41 percent, and Mark Warner won last year’s Senate race, 56 percent to 44 percent. For Virginia Republicans, a competitive statewide race is a giant step in the right direction.
If Youngkin runs better in the northern Virginia suburbs, that suggests that invoking Donald Trump probably won’t work all that well for Democratic candidates next year in the purplish suburbs outside Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Detroit, Orlando, Atlanta, or Phoenix. Mark Kelly, Raphael Warnock, Maggie Hassan and maybe even Catherine Cortez Mastio will have to sweat their Senate races.
A close-but-no-cigar finish for Youngkin would be a soft echo of 2009, when Bob McDonnell won Virginia by a landslide and Chris Christie beat Jon Corzine in the New Jersey gubernatorial election. Republicans would no doubt prefer to see two blue states turn red, instead of just one, or perhaps just a close finish in one. But unless McAuliffe defies all the polls, the message from the 2021 election cycle will be that we’re in the post-Trump era, and Democrats just can’t count on the former president to solve all of their turnout and motivation problems for them.
When a president wins, his supporters usually get less motivated, and the opposition party gets energized. There are no permanent victories in American politics. Momentum shifts back and forth like a pendulum between the two parties.