I’ve heard it stated a number of times today that Republicans aren’t really playing with fire because, to win, a nominee for speaker must get the votes of a majority of the House — meaning, a minimum of 218 members out of the total of 435. This is not the case.
A few months back, the Congressional Research Service prepared a useful report on how the speaker of the House is chosen. The CRS report, relying on authoritative House practice manuals, explains that the speaker is elected by a majority of members voting “for a person by name.”
Translation: 218 votes are not necessary if (a) fewer than 435 members attend the vote, or (b) members who are present opt not to vote for someone by name — i.e., if those latter members vote “present.” Thus, the report elaborates in footnote 13 (page 3), “In the period since the House first reached its current size of 435 Members (in 1913), six Speakers have been elected with fewer than 218 votes.”
Let’s say that, in order to register dissatisfaction with Kevin McCarthy, Republican members were to vote “present” rather than voting for a named alternative, such as Jim Jordan (the alternative who got the most votes, 20, in round three, but who backs McCarthy and says he doesn’t want the job). If there were enough “present” votes, New York Democrat Hakeem Jeffries could be elected speaker with just the 212 votes he amassed in round three from the unified Democrats. I believe that would take 12 “present” votes. (For Jeffries to win with 212, there could be no more than 423 votes for named candidates — out of the total of 435 House members.)
I would assume Republicans are aware of this and bearing it in mind. On the other hand, before today’s fiasco, I would have assumed Republicans would not have opposed McCarthy in the absence of having a viable alternative. By the way, I do not believe Jordan is a viable alternative; unlike McCarthy, he is not as acceptable to moderate Republicans as he is popular with pro-Trumpers and the anti-McCarthy dissenters.
According to some reports (see, e.g., here), a number of the dissenters have warned McCarthy that they don’t care whether their opposition to him leads to the election of a Democrat. The possibility of Jeffries’ being installed as speaker is remote, but it is not impossible — and, after today, not unforeseeable.