I have a column up at the LA Times on what to expect from the State of the Union.
In short, I think all of the people who proclaimed it a huge victory for Trump that he got to make his case for the wall “directly to the American people” are kidding themselves that he can sustainably move public opinion on the issue. He’s had many opportunities to do that before and the wall remains unpopular. And, more to the point, SOTU’s almost never move public opinion in a lasting way.
What could happen, however, is that the Democrats could make asses of themselves which will make it harder for them to position themselves as the reasonable party in their confrontations with Trump.
I suspect Trump will help himself mending some of the divisions in his base, but in a week’s time, this SOTU will likely be forgotten like all the others.