The Corner

Elections

What’s Happening to the Gender Gap?

President Donald Trump waves to supporters after speaking at a campaign rally at The Villages, Fla., October 23, 2020. (Tom Brenner / Reuters)

In 2016, 52 percent of men and 41 percent of women voted for Donald Trump. Subtracting them yields one measure of the gender gap in voting: 11 percent. The comparable figure in 2012 was 9. There have been a lot of predictions that this year will see the gap get bigger still.

At first glance, though, lot of the polling is finding a smaller gender gap than the one that showed up in 2016. The Economist/YouGov poll has an 8-percent gap. IBD/TIPP has it at 6.2, Morning Consult at 4, Reuters/Ipsos at 6. On the bigger side are the gender gaps in the New York Times/Siena College poll (13) and the new CNN poll (13); in the middle is Echelon Insights at 9.

However! IBD/TIPP’s last poll in 2016 had a 6-point gender gap, Morning Consult’s was 3, CNN’s was 8, and The Economist/YouGov’s was 5. Comparing the same polls now to then suggests the gender gap is indeed bigger this year.

It is extremely likely that Biden will get more votes from women than Trump does: The last time a Republican presidential candidate won among women was 1988 (when George H. W. Bush still did seven points better among men). But it’s too early to judge whether the gap has widened over the course of this presidency, and if so by how much.

Another gap of note is the marriage gap, which has usually been wider than the gender gap. In 2016, Trump did 15 points better among married voters than among unmarried ones. But pollsters break down their findings based on marital status a lot less often than they break it down by sex, so it’s hard to track its size.

Ramesh Ponnuru is a senior editor for National Review, a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and a senior fellow at the National Review Institute.

Most Popular

Immigration

What Now for Trump’s Border Wall?

The verdict on the U.S.–Mexico border wall President Trump promised to construct is decidedly mixed as the year comes to a close. The “big, beautiful wall,” as Trump referred to it, reached 400 miles in length by the end of October, when the Department of Homeland Security held a ceremony hailing the ... Read More
Immigration

What Now for Trump’s Border Wall?

The verdict on the U.S.–Mexico border wall President Trump promised to construct is decidedly mixed as the year comes to a close. The “big, beautiful wall,” as Trump referred to it, reached 400 miles in length by the end of October, when the Department of Homeland Security held a ceremony hailing the ... Read More
White House

A Justified Pardon

President Trump’s pardon of retired General Michael Flynn, who fleetingly served as his first national-security adviser, was a justified act of clemency. You don’t have to be a fan of how Trump has wielded his pardon power (often recklessly and on behalf of friends and supporters) or believe that Flynn was ... Read More
White House

A Justified Pardon

President Trump’s pardon of retired General Michael Flynn, who fleetingly served as his first national-security adviser, was a justified act of clemency. You don’t have to be a fan of how Trump has wielded his pardon power (often recklessly and on behalf of friends and supporters) or believe that Flynn was ... Read More
Culture

New England Journal of Medicine Pushes Reparations

Reparations would grant African Americans government benefits not paid to other Americans to rectify the awful sin of slavery and the "peculiar institution's" residual harm. It is a favored policy of hard progressives, so of course, the New England Journal of Medicine -- which regularly promotes left-wing causes ... Read More
Culture

New England Journal of Medicine Pushes Reparations

Reparations would grant African Americans government benefits not paid to other Americans to rectify the awful sin of slavery and the "peculiar institution's" residual harm. It is a favored policy of hard progressives, so of course, the New England Journal of Medicine -- which regularly promotes left-wing causes ... Read More

The New GOP

Ronald Reagan was dubbed the “Great Communicator.” Donald Trump might well be labeled the “Great Accelerator.” U.S. politics was polarized before President Trump, with both coalitions motivated mostly by fear of each other. We have gotten more polarized since Trump rode down that escalator. The Upper ... Read More

The New GOP

Ronald Reagan was dubbed the “Great Communicator.” Donald Trump might well be labeled the “Great Accelerator.” U.S. politics was polarized before President Trump, with both coalitions motivated mostly by fear of each other. We have gotten more polarized since Trump rode down that escalator. The Upper ... Read More

The Imaginary Trump

Like Andrew Jackson, Donald Trump is man who represents the age in which he lived. Whatever you may think of the age. Jackson embodied a generation of men who had risen and made their mark in a young country. He represented their desire for greater representation, even if it had costs for slaves and Indians. He ... Read More

The Imaginary Trump

Like Andrew Jackson, Donald Trump is man who represents the age in which he lived. Whatever you may think of the age. Jackson embodied a generation of men who had risen and made their mark in a young country. He represented their desire for greater representation, even if it had costs for slaves and Indians. He ... Read More