Politico Playbook has an item on whether the Dobbs effect is fading. It notes that the improved Democratic standing during the summer wasn’t entirely because of Dobbs to begin with:
What clouds the picture is that the much-discussed improvement for Democrats since the Dobbs decision also coincided with a 99-day drop in gas prices. Now, gas prices are rising and, despite a good jobs report on Friday, the news is filled with gloomy headlines about the economy. “Confidence slumps around the globe as cost of living crisis bites,” said the FT over the weekend. “Fed’s Inflation Fight Has Some Economists Fearing an Unnecessarily Deep Downturn,” reads a gloomy headline in the WSJ. “The job market is still strong, but the long-expected slowdown has begun,” notes the NYT this morning.
It then notes a story on the Nevada senate race, where Adam Laxalt is running quite strong:
The AP’s Steve Peoples’ headed to Nevada and kicked the tires of Democratic Sen. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO’s campaign to find out whether the vulnerable incumbent had placed too big a bet on Dobbs saving her candidacy. “Nevada Senate race tests potency of abortion focus for Dems” is the headline, and we imagine you will see several versions of this piece pegged to races around the country in the coming days.
The lede: “Democrats predicted abortion would be Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s saving grace. But inside Nevada’s crowded union halls, across its sun-scorched desert towns and on the buzzing Las Vegas strip, there are signs that outrage over the Supreme Court’s decision to dismantle abortion rights may not be enough to overcome intensifying economic concerns.
“That’s leaving Cortez Masto as the Senate’s most vulnerable Democrat in the final month of a volatile midterm election year. Her predicament is the starkest example of the challenge facing Democrats nationwide as they try to capitalize on anger over the abortion ruling while Republicans focus on crime and stubborn inflation. If Cortez Masto can’t turn things around, the GOP would be well on its way to netting the one seat they need to retake the Senate and blunt the final two years of President Joe Biden’s term.
“In an interview, Cortez Masto sidestepped questions about her fragile political standing. She acknowledged ‘there’s more work to be done’ on the economy in a working-class state in which gasoline remains over $5.40 per gallon, the unemployment rate is higher than the national average and spending at casinos has not kept pace with inflation.”
And don’t miss this quote from JAMES CARVILLE that will be widely circulated today among Dems:
“‘A lot of these consultants think if all we do is run abortion spots that will win for us. I don’t think so,’ said Carville, a vocal Cortez Masto ally who has sent dozens of fundraising emails on her behalf. ‘It’s a good issue. But if you just sit there and they’re pummeling you on crime and pummeling you on the cost of living, you’ve got to be more aggressive than just yelling abortion every other word.’
Dobbs definitely has had a more long-lasting political effect than I would have expected, but it’s still hard to see it overwhelming the top-of-mind economic issues in November.