we think there are over 30 in the “no” category, but there is a lot of movement. White House thinks they have 60 votes to invoke cloture. They may, it’s not clear. But it’s much closer than they wish to admit. Likely Republicans that are on the fence or undecided: Bond, Hatch, Burr, Coleman, Brownback, Ensign, Warner, Cochran, Collins, Snowe, Domenici, Murkowski, Stevens…(Gregg is lost cause on motion to proceed). Democrats that should be good but who are wobbly – McCaskill, Webb, Tester, Pryor, Landrieu, Dorgan, Baucus, Bingaman (supposedly traded vote for something). IF cloture is invoked tomorrow with, say, 35 votes against (ballpark guess at this point) – that will be a sizable demonstration of momentum against the bill, and there still will remain 48 hours before the NEXT cloture vote… the one on the bill itslef (Thursday AM). What happens in between is still not clear due to the weird procedural move (Clay Pigeon) by the Majority Leader – with help from the grand bargainers… but one thing is certain – the heat will be intense during that time…