On the burgeoning burrito discourse, Jim Geraghty asks, “Why is food more expensive?” since the pandemic.
He then answers:
A wide variety of reasons. Eggs were particularly expensive around the start of Trump’s first term, in large part because of an outbreak of bird flu. (Eggs are now less expensive than when Trump took office.) Increased fuel prices make transporting food from producers to markets more expensive. Drought and higher costs for feed and fertilizer have driven up beef prices. Tariffs make imported food like coffee, fish, beer, wine, and liquor more expensive.
And labor is more expensive than in 2020. In fact, at the beginning of this year, 19 states raised their minimum wages. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, “nearly 8 in 10 workers earning the minimum wage or less in 2023 were employed in service occupations, mostly in food preparation and serving-related jobs.” If the public wants a higher minimum wage, it has to accept paying higher prices for food. . . .
And so on, and so forth. Consumer habits, merchant fees, taxes . . .
Here’s my response: Yes, on the margins, tariffs and higher fuel prices may make certain food items more expensive. Supply shocks, too, and all those other things. A little bit here, a little bit there — all granted. (And I opposed both tariffs and the Iran war, for the record.)
But you know what could be the main cause of higher food prices over such a short period? Or even the cause of higher prices of goods and services across the board? Maybe it was blowing up the money supply by 50 percent in six years and dishing out all that new money like candy.
Look at growth in the money supply over the past ten years. Now look at average prices for food away from home. Now look at average prices for all consumer items. I’m not saying that it’s exactly the same chart, but . . . it’s exactly the same chart.
Can you tell the difference? pic.twitter.com/0AUjoCewrV
— John R. Puri (@JohnPuri2026) August 6, 2026
This is high school macroeconomics stuff: When the money supply goes way up very quickly, prices rise. Milton Friedman had this down in 1963, for goodness’ sake.
What practical lessons should we take away? Personally, I would start by doing the one single thing necessary to reduce monetary inflation, which remains ongoing.