Listen to most chatter about the Republican presidential race these days, and you’ll often hear people mention that after New Hampshire next Tuesday the race will move to South Carolina on February 24. But if you look at the actual calendar it shows that Nevada Republicans will vote in between those two primaries. So you may be wondering: Why is nobody talking about it?
The answer stems from the confusing fact that there isn’t one contest, but two: a primary on February 6 and a caucus on February 8. To make matters more complicated, Nikki Haley won’t appear on the same ballot as Donald Trump and Governor Ron DeSantis in either contest.
This is how we got here. In 2021, following the chaotic Nevada Democratic caucuses of a year earlier, state lawmakers passed a law requiring a presidential primary. However, the state Republican Party rejected this interference with the way it nominates candidates, so it decided to move ahead with the caucus anyway — and bar any candidate who participated in the primary from participating in the caucus, which will actually allocate delegates.
Last fall, Haley decided to register for the primary along with Senator Tim Scott and Mike Pence, while Trump, DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie, and Governor Doug Burgum decided to participate in the caucus.
With most of those candidates having already dropped out of the race, it means that Haley will be the sole major candidate on the primary ballot, while DeSantis and Trump are the only major candidates on the caucus ballot.
As a result of this, Haley will be able to tout herself as the winner of the Nevada primary; and then, two days later, Trump will publicize his blow-out win in the Nevada caucus. There will be much debate among campaign surrogates about the comparative victory margins and turnout. But ultimately, if Haley and DeSantis survive New Hampshire, whatever happens in Nevada won’t matter — and all the focus will immediately shift to South Carolina.