Recalling 2022, I’m not convinced that this election will be much of anything.
Why So Grim About the Midterms?
We don’t know precisely how the midterms will shake out, but Democrats entered the cycle needing to add six more seats to win control of the House of Representatives, and a pickup of one seat to control the Senate. The president’s approval rating is 42 percent, and he is making, in the words of the New York Times, a “remarkably low-key campaign effort” to support candidates this fall, although he will be attending two events today to support Florida’s gubernatorial and Senate candidate.
Unemployment is low by historical standards (3.5 percent), but inflation is 8.1 percent and has been above 6 percent year-over-year for twelve months now. Grocery prices are 13 percent higher than a year ago. The national average for a gallon of unleaded gasoline is $3.75, and has been above $3 per gallon since May of last year.
About 67 percent of Americans tell pollsters that the country is on the wrong track; some surveys put that number above 70 percent. In the RealClearPolitics average, Democrats currently enjoy a 2.9 percent lead on the generic ballot.
This morning, Gallup unveiled a new batch of national numbers, and it concluded that, “The Republicans are especially vulnerable this year because the national mood is as bad, if not worse, than it has been in any recent midterm election year.”
The above excerpt is from November 1, 2022. I simply swapped Democrats and Republicans as today’s landscape required. Quite the historical slant-rhyme scheme.
Recalling 2022, I’m not convinced that this election will be much of anything.
Election Night 2022: I was a press-pass holder at Senator Ron Johnson’s presumed victory party. The muckety-mucks who’d financed his campaign were seated with honors, and I found it amusing how they peered scornfully at those of us in the press gallery — apparently I should have worn some NR gear to set myself apart from the “enemy of the people.”
Early returns looked just as promising as the red-wave polling and Dems’ defensive spending had suggested. Libations were flowing, even adjusted for Wisconsin consumption rates: All was well.
Eight hours later, Ron Johnson would dismiss the last few attendees, promising that his victory would be announced soon, but to go get some sleep. Johnson would be one of two statewide GOP candidates (the other treasurer, John Leiber) to survive what became Republicans’ 2016. The cold water of a blue Senate, a minuscule House majority, a Dem state executive team, and the reality of another two years of the Biden presidency did nothing to salve a dozen Old Fashioneds’ mining operation in one’s brainpain.
So when I see Democrats crowing prematurely, and conservatives doing what we do best — moaning — I can’t help but recall Hillary in her glass-ceilinged political tomb. And then the reverse: Republican women in ballgowns next to grog-blossomed husbands laughing at the press before sulking out of the building.
Maybe Democrats carry the day. It’s possible. But the Biden admin was eleven points further into the hole of American pessimism than the Trump admin is today . . . so who knows? Not I.
A gray acquaintance puts it: “Despair is only for those who see the end beyond all doubt. We do not.”
Vote if you feel moved, watch the returns, and may we get on with the better things in life.