In light of the conspicuous and disproportionate failure of Trump-supported candidates last night compared with other Republicans, a rational observer might wonder if Donald Trump will decide to put off his rumored announcement of a 2024 presidential campaign until after the dust has settled for a bit. Maybe so. But doing so would run counter to the logic of Trump’s now-familiar approach to the Republican Party.
Consider: Right now, there is a heavy air of recrimination wafting in Trump’s direction. The moment he announces a presidential campaign, prominent figures in the party who have lived through prior rounds of backing down from confrontation with Trump will have to decide whether, this time, it is finally time to rip the Band-Aid off and take him on openly. Doing so as far as possible from the next election allows wounds to heal, just as they did in Georgia for Brian Kemp. Get all the bad blood out in the open now.
But: There is still another election. Once again, as in the run-up to January 6, 2021, there is a runoff election in Georgia, this time on December 6. Once again, if Adam Laxalt holds out in Nevada, that runoff election would decide control of the Senate. Trump’s favorite weapon to protect himself from criticism within the party is to say, in essence, “If you take me on, I will take this election down.” So, if Trump wants an announcement at a time when fellow Republicans are least likely to take shots at him, he will wait to see if Laxalt wins and then announce while the rest of the party is gathering all hands on deck for Herschel Walker. That’s the maximum moment of leverage, and it’s how Trump has acted before, always placing his own hold on power within the party above the good of the party. That’s why, at least if Laxalt wins, you should expect a Trump announcement before December 6.