He may not want to end his successful political career by getting blown out in a race against Republican Jim Justice.
If poll numbers like these hold up, you really have to wonder if Joe Manchin is going to run for reelection in 2024:
2024 West Virginia Senate: Jim Justice holds 22-Point lead over Joe Manchin
(R) Justice : 54% (+22)
(D) Manchin: 32%Justice approval: 57/29 (net +28)
Manchin approval: 33/59 (-26)ECU poll, May 22-23, 957 RV https://t.co/foJkr58fiY pic.twitter.com/H5rhdqS9UB
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 30, 2023
Manchin, a former governor who has served in the U.S. Senate since 2010, will be 77 years old at the time of the next election, and he may not want to end his successful political career by getting blown out in a race against Republican Jim Justice, the sitting governor.
While West Virginia is key to GOP efforts to take back the Senate, which Democrats currently hold 51–49, it’s important to remember that the outcome in West Virginia will not play a role in determining whether Democrats could nuke the legislative filibuster in 2025 because Manchin has been a strong supporter of the 60-vote threshold. That scenario depends on Senate Democrats’ replacing Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona and Democratic incumbents holding on in Ohio, Montana, and Nevada. If they can do that, Democrats would have 50 senators willing to scrap the 60-vote rule — something they’d surely do if they keep the White House and gain the handful of seats necessary to take back the House.