This conversation is drawn from the latest edition of The Editors podcast and lightly edited.
Rich Lowry: So, Noah, I really don’t think it’s going to matter much at the end of the day. But let’s do it anyway: Percentage odds that Nikki Haley wins New Hampshire a week from today?
Noah Rothman: I think it’s no better than 50–50. But that’s pretty good odds given the state of the race. And the staying power of Trump’s opponents.
Rich: Fifty–fifty, I think that’s high. So do you discount the polls that show Trump ahead by 20?
Noah: Well, I really, I mean, I don’t want to disparage the work done by ARG or others, for example, but I don’t think they have the best track records.
Rich: I think you just disparaged the work of ARG, Noah!
Noah: But the trajectory of the race has been very clear in New Hampshire for quite some time. And Nikki Haley got the boost she needed to get out of Iowa. She overperformed expectations. She was nowhere near this a month ago. And she performed at the peak of her polling. So bully her. And with Christie out, I think most of his voters will go to her. I think ARG’s top-line number right now is 40–40, Trump–Nikki Haley.
Rich: Yeah, 40–40.
Noah: And that sounds about right to me, although Vivek has some support there and that’s going to go to Trump, too. I mean, it’s going to be tough sledding. If Nikki Haley can pull it out, it’ll be no more than a point or two. And it’s still a jump ball. So I think it’s a 50–50 prospect. But that’s the best odds anybody’s had against Donald Trump all year.
Rich: Well, that’s true. Jim, we have a 50 percent on the board.
Jim Geraghty: Yeah, I’m not as optimistic as Noah. I think I’ll go 40 percent.
Rich: Look at you guys, I love it. The optimistic spirit!
Jim: A big chunk of the Christie vote will go to her, and a chunk of the Ramaswamy vote to Trump. DeSantis isn’t really playing or contesting it that much. That’s not a great formula for her. I think probably she’ll be within a couple of points of Trump, but, if she wins, she’s winning by the skin of her teeth, and it’s not really going to be a “Oh, wow, this is a whole new race” mood.
Rich: So, Charlie, if you aren’t too despairing to participate, what percentage odds?
Charles C. W. Cooke: I think it’s about 20 percent.
Rich: There you go. I think it’s like 25. I was 30 or 40 at some point. But I just think Trump stomping in Iowa will help him.
Noah: See, I think that’s why she wins, if she wins.
Rich: Because you get the reaction from New Hampshire?
Noah: I mean, it’s a pretty reliable phenomenon.
Charles: If Noah’s right, I hope everyone is excited for the “Nikki Haley stole New Hampshire” news cycle that we’ll get for a month.
Rich: Oh, yeah.
Charles: It’s the first thing Trump will do. And then we’ll all be obliged to write about it, and his apologists will believe every word of it, and then she’ll make herself unpopular by denying that she stole the race from him.
Rich: Yeah, she’ll screw ourselves by saying, “No, I actually won New Hampshire.”
Charles: In other words, the worst thing Nikki Haley can do for her chances is win. That’s the universe we now operate in.
Rich: Well, we’ll know soon enough.