The Democratic Party’s success in making New York unlivable for Republicans may help Hochul stave off humiliation.
Democratic policies have driven a record number of New Yorkers to flee the state in recent years, but ironically, that just may be what saves New York governor Kathy Hochul from defeat.
As Dan pointed out earlier, a new poll suggests that Republican challenger Lee Zeldin has pulled even with Democratic incumbent Hochul with just a week to go before Election Day. Given the massive Democratic voter registration advantage in the state, Hochul still has to be considered the favorite. That said, the race is closer than anybody expected. So close, that the margin might end up being explained by Republican voters who gave up on the state as a lost cause and abandoned it already.
We have no perfect data on how many registered New York voters fled, or of those, how many were Republicans. But there are a few data points worth considering.
The Census reported that between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021, over 350,000 New Yorkers moved to other states, many for red-state destinations such as Texas and Florida. In 2021, nearly 62,000 people applied to switch from New York to Florida drivers’ licenses, and that trend has continued this year (the number stood at nearly 42,000 in 2022 through August). It’s likely that a lot of those people moving from New York to Ron DeSantis’s Florida were driven out by liberal policies, particularly regarding Covid (as was the case with my friend Karol Markowicz).
In the 2018 New York governor’s race, turnout was about 6.1 million. So in a race that’s within 1 percent, around 60,000 votes could be decisive.
Thus, if the margin is that tight, there would be a plausible case to be made that the Democratic Party’s success in making New York unlivable for Republicans may help Hochul stave off humiliation.