Ten contests in the Republican presidential primary are “pure” winner-take-all – meaning that if you win the most votes, you get all the delegates. A lot of states are winner-take-most states like South Carolina, where the statewide winner gets the largest share, but another candidate can win a certain number of delegates by winning a congressional district.
Polling in most of these states and territories is sparse, but from what we can see, Donald Trump is likely the front-runner in these winner-take-all states.
The ten winner-take-all contests are:
Arizona: 58 delegates. No recent polling. Most recent one in November had Ben Carson ahead of Trump by two points; one poll in August had Trump ahead by 17 points.
Delaware: 16 delegates. No polling.
Florida: 99 delegates. Trump leads all three surveys conducted in January, by margins ranging from 12 to 32 points. This should be a blaring, five-alarm fire for Marco Rubio; if Trump beats him in his home state, the skeptical “what state can Rubio win?” cries will get deafening.
Ohio: 66 delegates. This morning’s Quinnipiac poll has Trump ahead with 31 percent; Governor John Kasich has 26 percent.
Montana: 27 delegates. No polling.
Nebraska: 36 delegates. No polling.
New Jersey: 51 delegates. Most recent polling is November, two polls had Trump ahead, one by 13 points, one by 15 points.
South Dakota: 29 delegates. No polling.
Virgin Islands: 9 delegates. No polling.
Northern Mariana Islands: 9 delegates. No polling.
Trump has 67 delegates so far; Cruz has 11, and Rubio has 10. A candidate needs 1,237 to win. But those four big winner-take-all states – Arizona, Florida, New Jersey and Ohio – could give Trump 274 quickly. Sweeping all of the winner-take-all contests would give Trump 400 delegates.